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Post by Wycco on Jul 19, 2002 16:26:31 GMT -5
Yikes!
Stock Markets still plumeting around the world- here in the US the Dow Jones is predicted to be gracing the 7000 mark by the end of next week when it seems like only yesterday we were playing with 12000.
I've only been investing in a 401k plan for a few years- but even I am thousands of dollars poorer than I was two weeks ago!
This is totally insane- I think all investors have lost their rocker- the economy ISN'T THAT BAD to take a 4000 point plunge from its high point!
Anyhow- enough of my rant! It make take a few years but things will eventually get back to normal! I hope!
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Post by Henrik on Jul 19, 2002 16:39:58 GMT -5
Actually, the worst is that the economy is not bad at all at present. What has happened is that there is nor real connection between the stock market and the economy anymore. Investors are running around like hens that have lost their heads because of all they have lost in the last two years. As soon as there is a slight upturn in the market, they then sell in order to make a small profit, driving the market down further. I think Greenspans increased projection of the economy for 2003 is very promising. By the time people sit down and take a deep breath, they will realize that things are not so bad, and the market will start to finally come back. Hopefully this time it will not rocket like it did in the 90's, but instead there will be a solid increase based on real economical figures. Actually, a few months back for fun I made some clippings from the financial headlines. One day they all said everything looked great, markets where coming back and everything was back in order. The next day it would say RECESSION. Then again the next, the Bull Market has returned, and so on. This went on day after day, and I'm sure if you look at things today you will see the same. Those stupid financial gurus are just talking nonsense, and not basing their projections on anything real. Personally, I really don't even follow the market closely anymore on a daily basis. It just doesn't mean anything. Better to go and have some  |
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Post by JWK on Jul 20, 2002 6:34:21 GMT -5
I caught President Bush's economics adress live the other night and noticed that he managed to side step any realities or facts and build on the audiences imaginations- he was talking of things such as America having 'Stable foundations' for stock exchange- and he said it in a way that-to me at least- pulled on the cords of patriotism that seem to run through the majority of Americans. He said things that portrayed the message: AMERICA IS THE BEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD! Now- i dont know a single thing about economics, but it seemed to me that the speech was grounded in a fantasy vision, and combined with Henrik's information in the previous post it also seems that there are two seperate things that guide stock, and those are reality and hype/speculation. The stock has gone down, thats true, and its also true that it has gone down by quite a large margin, but its only confidence that keeps it up there, and investors have lost that. The state of your economy does not truthfully convey the status of a countries power and wealth, but more reflects how good that country is at promoting themselves, and how well the PR machine is working. Hmmm, im rambling, but ill continue anyhow, and i'll try a bit of a comparison Also im most probably wrong in what im going to say as i have never personally experienced either of these things, and have only the slightest dregs of info stored in my nutshell of a memory...here goes: Imagine the space race... hold on, ive just found about 4 billion holes im my argument... dash that! Ok imagine your favourite ball game, You have great hopes for your favourite team, your backing them 100%(this faith may not be guided by their talent alone). They are due to play in your city in a fortnight, so you buy your tickets and feel good about your purchase. As the days tick buy you gradually get more excited, and talk about it with your mates, who also follow the sport. The big day draws near and by now you have high expectations of your team, you and your friends are pumped as well. On the day of the match the excitement has welled up inside of you and you celebrate with your friends before the match, throwing back a couple of beers and having a great time, your team is going to win, no doubt about it. You get to the stadium and find your seats, amongst hosts of other supporters, you make a lot of noise, and are proud to be affiliated with your team, if only at a distance. The match starts and the teams appear evenly matched, still you cheer. The opposition scores, you feel like crap for a bit, but still know your team can regain the lead. They score again, you get angry and now no longer cheer, the beer tastes sour and the hotdog has gone cold. there is a period of limbo when only ten minutes remain, where you think your team can still pull through, but you doubt it. The final buzzer/whistle sounds and you are angry at everything, the opposition, the ref, your own team for letting you down. You drive home sobered by the match and go to sleep. You grumble about the result with your friends, who seem to share your opinions, but you are not so downbeat about it. You mill around for a couple of days and then start thinking about the next match.. Over the next week you start hoping again, yes it was a bad performance by your team, but they could have won. Your faith is restored. The next match is in 5 days or so, the hopes build again and once more you put stock in your team to be victorious... etc etc Now, think of that in terms of the stock market(team) and investors(you)- but with a much larger scale and time period, with the match lasting, say, a year, maybe two... ummm, did i make any sence?? Man! this hangover is killing me!  |
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Post by Danny Boy on Jul 22, 2002 2:22:37 GMT -5
It depends how you look at it ???Do you value your share in monetary terms or the number of shares owned?
On Wednesday I sold 10,000 vodafone shares at £0.98 (even though on paper they cost me £1.05 6 weeks ago) 10,000 x 98 = £9,800 less £12.5 commission = £9,787.5
On Thursday morning I bought 10,290 vodafone shares @ £0.94.5 cost £9,724 plus £12.5 commission plus £48.62 stamp duty = £9,785.12
I now own 10,290 vodafone shares
For the record I sold those shares @ £0.99.5 on Thursday afternoon and bough again on Friday afternoon for £0.94.5 and as of 10 minutes before trading starts this morning I have placed a sell (at limit) order of 10,700 @ £0.98
To summarize I now own 700 extra vodafone shares for no additional outlay. This has brought down my initial cost of the 10,000 shares at £1.05 to 10,700 @ just over £0.98.
It is all down to how much of a gambler you are.
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Post by Wycco on Jul 22, 2002 8:06:54 GMT -5
JWK,
LOL- re Bush's comments... whenever something looks bad in America someone yells- "America is the greatest" and all of a sudden everyone thinks that there is nothing wrong- it really is quite amusing... LOL patriotism is a powerfull thing here and Bush was just playing Politics as usual!
Henrik,
I've no doubt the stock market will pick up- and I don't worry about individual days- but a trend like this can predict where the economy is going to be in 6 months. When the market is down (this much) companies have less ability to raise money to invest in themselves- whats bad for companies is bad for employees- I'm worried last weeks stock plunge is going to cause panic over the next couple of days and ravish the market further! There could very easy be another "after shock" recession!
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Post by Henrik on Jul 22, 2002 8:44:49 GMT -5
Wycco,
That is essential my own fear as well. I hate to see a situation where it is the stock market that drives the economy and not the economy that drives the stock market.
Oh well, I think there is nobody today that can say what is really going to happen.
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Post by da_silva on Jul 22, 2002 8:47:00 GMT -5
Well,
It really is just a market correction, after the inflated averages through the turn of the millenium the markets are now returning to what should be its real value, and around 7000 is a number I've heard quite frequently. The overpriced stocks are now returning to realistic valuations and with corporate irresponsibilities coming to light a much more solid market can be trusted for the future.
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Post by Henrik on Aug 2, 2002 9:57:14 GMT -5
Just remembered another news topic regarding the current stock market that always bothers me, and that is the job siutation.
One month when the figures are presented, we see a headling something like:
Okay, so this basically implies that the stockmarket falls because there are less unemployed. Hmmmm.
Then the next month (like today) you get the following headline:
Wow, so now since there are less jobs being created than what was expected (resulting in more unemployment) the stock markets fall as well!! At least that makes more ethical sense to me.
Still, either way you lose today!
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Post by Wycco on Aug 2, 2002 11:25:29 GMT -5
LOL...
Next month you will read:
Apr 25th 2003:
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Post by rick1776 on Mar 22, 2003 8:05:34 GMT -5
Wycco, so you dabble in the stock market. so do I albeit very badly. Rule number one. If youy can not afford to lose everything you have in the stock market dont play with it. A good site for some simple hints is: www.farleigh.comcheers rick1776 |
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Post by Wycco on Mar 24, 2003 9:38:18 GMT -5
My stock market interest lie in my 401K... IRAs and the like...
I try, as a rule to invest 15% of everything I make... and whereas- I lead a far from luxurious life... That 15% I can live without...
I'm hoping- if I invest enough whilst still young, I can maybe retire a little earlier than normal... LOL I feel I was born to retire!
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Post by Topcontender on Mar 24, 2003 10:26:25 GMT -5
stock market jumped 1000points  War is helping, It will fall back tiny bit and jump again after the cease fire |
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Post by Henrik on Mar 24, 2003 11:26:25 GMT -5
TC,
Don't forget that the people in the stock market have become so extremely short sighted that the initial rise has already given way to a fall.
The war extended over the weekend, so now they think it will be a long war, so the market is down over 3.5% this morning.
Expect to see this sort of movement for sometime. If tomorrow, Iraqi resistance keeps looking strong (or if the media reports it that way...) the market will continue to drop. If progress again looks good (or if the media reports it that way....) expect it to bounce back again.
And if Saddam is officially announced dead, woohoo, break out the champagne because the market will rocket on that day. Only to fall the next as people sober up and see that there is still work left to clean up Iraq...
Stockmarket is all bullshit if you ask me and I have been working with this since 18 years....
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Post by Topcontender on Mar 24, 2003 11:54:43 GMT -5
yeah i figured they would do that. The POW's and the mistakes are making investors think twice. I dunno why we are already outside baghdad. That is faster than any other war
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